Demand Forecasting

Demand Forecasting

pop1 1 - Demand ForecastingDemand forecasting is a field of predictive analytics seeking to understand and predict customer demand to optimise supply, service specification and funding decisions.  These projects are generally commissioner focused and involve predicting future service demand over a multiple year period, often aligned to future contractual cycles.  This helps to ensure future demand can be expressed objectively and managed in advance.  For instance we work with several district nursing organisations to predict demand based on growth in the elderly population.

Modelled demand classifications drive demand for services and thus clinical workload and staffing. This can feed the Benson model or be delivered as a bespoke model or analysis, including ability to perform “what-if” scenario analysis. The factors impacting on demand might include:

  • Population size
  • Population growth
  • Population demographics
  • Estimated sub groups of population with additional needs (e.g. safeguarding, teenage parents)
  • Estimated prevalence of medical conditions
  • Estimated incidence of medical events
  • Estimated levels of engagement / presentation / compliance
  • Impact of service change or innovation, for instance on engagement, attendances, identification, presentation and compliance
  • Service level demand and impact on care pathways / attendances

In order to develop a robust demand forecast model we would leverage off the following available information sources:

  • Historical service activity data
  • National statistics embedded in our databases
  • Benson service benchmarking
  • Bespoke research
  • Additional information provided by clients / stakeholders

For more information please contact us here.