Developing a national dementia analysis and forecasting tool

Developing a national dementia analysis and forecasting tool

We were requested by the NHS to develop an enhanced tool to help PCT’s, CCG’s, Local Authorities and Strategic Health networks to predict the current and future level of identified and unidentified Dementia in their area.  This involved administering a number of large national datasets based on population, primary care data, care home capacity and occupancy and aligning this information to the relevant health areas.

There were also a number of key research documents which were incorporated in the assumptions and references accompanying the final tool.  These reflected national guidelines about the definition and treatment of Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease.  One of the key deliverables was aligning the final model to these guidelines and definitions.

 

Data was carefully validated to ensure robustness.  This included using external sources to validate and reasonableness test, and identifying and following up any anomalies.

A front end tool was provided to enable areas to log in and develop their own profile.  This enabled users to forecast dementia using two alternative methods, and perform detailed analysis on their area, including granular analysis down to GP and rest home level.  This also provided areas with the ability to select and compare chosen metrics against other areas in the country, including various statistical and graphical analysis.