Developing a treatment impact model for Alzheimer’s Disease

Developing a treatment impact model for Alzheimer’s Disease

dem - Developing a treatment impact model for Alzheimer's Disease


A multi treatment commissioning support tool developed to enable NHS partners to review current local compliance with the NICE AD treatment pathway, develop a new service scenarios reflecting higher levels of compliance, and assess the predicted health outcomes and cost / benefit of increasing compliance.



Our pharmaceutical client required a new tool to provide new insight and analysis into the current patterns of commissioning around AD treatments. NICE guidance recommended their treatment (“Treatment X”) for specific types of AD, with other established treatments licensed for other areas of the treatment pathway.

Research provided showed treatment X delayed the move to full time care (FTC) compared to the best standard care (BSC) comparator, which included the other available treatments.

A key issue was lack of current knowledge and compliance with NICE guidelines. In many cases the treatments were being referred incorrectly to unlicensed areas of the pathway. A new mechanism was required to draw attention to current local compliance with NICE, and enable cost/benefit analysis of higher levels of compliance.


Working closely with the client, we developed a treatment impact model using advanced Excel and VBA. All relevant research is incorporated and documented. This is designed to be owned and managed by our client.

The new tool enables the sales team to work with NHS commissioners and partners to review health intelligence and conduct “what-if” analysis around achieving higher levels of compliance with NICE pathways.

This model provides two key benefits:

  1. Enable current and new local treatment mixes (reflecting higher compliance with NICE) to be forecasted along with the cost of transitioning to a new treatment mix over the next ten years
  2. Predict the impact of transitioning to a new treatment mix on treatment outcomes

The new tool was subjected to rigorous review and demonstrated to the sales team, to ensure feedback and suggestions were received and actioned where possible.


The model has provided a new capability to our client, and received warm feedback from the sales team during the demonstrations It is now being used in a live capacity with the NHS. The new tool achieved all the objectives that were set out at the inception of the project.